A - Z of Poker: Day 11

From London to Vegas in 26 Letters

Day11: K is for ...

K is for Karma. I believe it ! I suspect 'Karma' has a very technical meaning, strictly speaking, but of course I am thinking of "it was meant to be" and "I just felt lucky".

My travel plans for June and July have certainly been karma-affected. My qualification for the WSOP main event - by means of a quadruple-shootout win - had all the hallmarks of the magic "K for Karma".

Ideally, this karma should extend into the event itself and produce the necessary one-outers and bricks required to see me into the money. I do genuinely think that having a positive attitude and feeling good about one's chances helps in the actual tournament. This has nothing to do with superstition, and everyone to do with the fact that poker as a mind game relies on confidence, and on projecting doubt into the mind of the opponent.

I am equally certain that when I hit a miracle river after a terrible call and say "it was karma, I felt lucky!" my opponent will not appreciate that it was all meant to be.

K is for Kelly Criterion. This principle states that wherever and whenever there is demand for a poker club, and such poker club is not definitely illegal, then that poker club shall be opened !

It is also apparently the name of a mathematical principle that aims to put some method behind every gambler's hunch that they have a "system for beating the house". It's a pretty pukka (and relatively simple) piece of theory that gives the optimal size of bets according to certain conditions and is also used in financial applications.

The most interesting application of it that I have personally come across was in the "The Vic roulette team" story. I say "story" as if to suggest it is fiction, but it's a known fact. Or, if not, then it should be true. Actually, it was widely reported, eg here.

Essentially, a group of smart poker players took advantage of a seriously -EV promotion that the Victoria Casino offered on roulette (40-1 odds on the "day of the month" number). The team of players pooled together a large bankroll to exploit the edge freely offered by the house to the players and the Kelly Criterion was used to decide on the correct betting strategy to maximise the win whilst minimising the risk of getting unlucky and going bust.

I have played (poker) with a couple of people from the team that ran up many tens of thousands of profit from this wheeze and it's nearly as much fun listening to the tale as having been in the team itself (actually, probably more fun but less profitable !).