After the pivotal H-bomb moment with the 9s8s, I have 50,000 chips half way through level 9. We are playing 10 levels on day 1 and average chips are less than 30,000. I have 60 big blinds. It is absolutely obvious that I should make day2 and probably the money.
I’m feeling pretty good, and make a river call with Ace-high (winning) to move to 55,000 which turns out to be my high point. I am reluctant to get involved at this late stage on day1. Perhaps in future events I will feel that I can take advantage of this reluctance in others, but for today I am happy to be the one playing lock-down poker now that I have got a stack.
Level 10. 500/1000/100. 48,300 chips. 461 players left.
I move to Table 43 where there are some large stacks and some better players (it seems to me). One is pokerstars team pro Raymond Rahme. There are also 3 or 4 local Vegas pros. I resolve to be very cautious. I do play pocket 8s and take down a small pot on an Ace-high flop, and I win a small pot with 54o blind on blind vs a very tight player.
But, to be clear, I am basically counting down the minutes and hoping no kind of cooler situation develops. With 10 minutes left, they draw for the number of hands left and it’s four more. “I’m only playing Aces” I announce and I pretty much mean it.
The poker gods toy with me, dealing me respectable hands: first QcJc (I open-fold), then KhJd (I open fold), then 5c5s (open fold) and then on the very last hand of the night AcKc. I am under the gun. I really, seriously, consider open-folding but opt to limp in case I can see a flop.
The button who has 90k chips make a raise to 3,600 and I fold. He shows me AdQh. Yes it’s a weak play on my part, but I really did not want to have to blog how I got to the very last hand of the day and no further.
So this is a completely new experience for me. I have never made day2 of a multiday event of any kind. This includes a half-dozen or so WSOP Event, a GUKPT, WSOPE and several GSOP etc main events.
We bag up our chips (something new for me). I write my name as Howard “H-bomb” Smith hoping they will report it as such on pokernews, but they go for the more straightforward “Howard Smith, Bedford, United Kingdom”.
I discover that on 49,300 I have about 50% more than average and am lying in 76th place out of 376 left. I am only a triple up away from the chip lead in fact. What will day 2 bring ?
Level 11 (day2). 600/1,200/100. 48,300 chips. 376 players left.
We restart at 2pm the next day. My new table (there has been a full redraw) is quite logo-heavy but these are all qualifier logos so there is still a shortage of known players. The one exception is James Keys (Blackbelt pro and “internet whizzkid”) in seat 1. I am in seat4 and am 3rd in chips at my table behind James in 2nd and another player on 89k.
I realise I have to play carefully to make the money and avoid the heartache of missing out now (when I am in a good position). My cards make it pretty easy to stay out of trouble and I play no hands for the first half an hour as the number of players drifts down to 350 and below.
Then, I witness a massive pot between James Keys and the player who was on a respectable 30k chips at the beginning of the hand. Action folds to Tom Jones in the small blind, who just calls. James raises 2,000. Jones now limp-raises 4,000 more and James instantly moves all in and is quickly called.
For James: 7c6c
For Jones: AdJd
Flop: Td7d5h – James is ahead but needs to avoid any Ace, Jack, diamond or running cards. The turn and river miss the other player and James moves on to about 140k.
The very next hand, James is in the small blind and I pick up red Tens in under-the-gun+1. This is the first real hand I have had, and I think I should raise. I make it 2,800 which is standard at the table.
From here, the hand is a story of mistakes and tricky decisions.
Folds to James who is stacking his monster pot from the previous hand still. He re-raises me to 9,600.
Now, at the time, I did not notice that James had stopped stacking in order to play this hand with a re-raise. We discussed it afterwards and he pointed it out to me.
In the heat of the moment I thought “aggressive internet player”, “I have a big hand”, “I have position”, “I am getting >2:1”.
What I should have thought was “good player is raising an apparently tight EP raiser out of the blinds”. My tens are probably way behind or slightly ahead. I will have position but I already see the stacks are going to be awkward. At the time I also miscalculated the odds and thought I was getting better odds than I was. Also, I now realise, the chip-stacking was a tell.
In post-match analysis I am clear that I should fold now.
“Ten-high please” I think. Unfortunately it is not to be although the 8-high flop is possibly not so bad. 8-6-5 rainbow. James carefully bets 11,000. My problem is that I cannot tell if this is a continuation with a missed AK, or a continuation with a pair that beats me. Of course 3 other pairs now beat me so I am only beating 9s now and even that hand has a gutshot.
I think for a bit. My first instinct is to raise all-in. However, I think about what James will think, and what he will do. If he has QQ+ then he will call. I appear not to have KK or AA. He might think that I flatted AA but he will stay “pay off”. I think he will also call with QQ. Possibly he may fold JJ but he has so many chips that I am doubtful. He will probably fold 99 and presumably he now folds AK, AQ that I am already beating. The advantage of moving in if I am winning is that it stops him bluffing me off on the following streets.
I decided to call in the hope that (a) I am winning, and (b) that he will let me see a showdown although I must say that I fear he will see that this is what I want and keep the pressure on.
In the end, I decide that if I cannot see the showdown I will still have enough chips to survive and make the call, swelling the pot to 42,900 and leaving me with 25,800 behind.
The turn is the Ace of hearts (it’s a full rainbow board I recall). James asks for a count. He doesn’t actually look like he is pleased to see an Ace, but neither am I really ! It means that I am now beating nothing. The only good thing is that perhaps it will slow him down and let me see showdown.
James gets the dealer to count out my stack and I am quite sure he did not really need this done to know how many I had. Presumably he wants to get a read on me. I suspect that he can pin my range pretty closely. Would I really call the flop with Ace-King/Ace-Queen ?
I actually am acting pretty confident on this turn, and the reason is that I know that if he bets again I will fold. I am not going to have to dwell or think. I don’t think he has an Ace but I know that if he bets I cannot push and get him to fold a big pair. I suppose I could call and probably get a free showdown on the river but then I would be short. I am not prepared to do that.
More interesting will be if he checks. If we were in the money and he checks, I think I will move in. I wonder to myself if I am prepared to do that here but I know the answer.
In the end, James carefully selects 12,800. I pass quickly. He tells me later that he had Queens and I 80%+ believe him.
I am disappointed about this hand. Calling the pre-flop raise was a mistake and it puts my WSOP-cash in danger.
What I had not realised, but what I would know in future, is how quickly the required 80 players get knocked out. I was expecting a painful bubble process (my mega-sat experience from last year is on my mind, but that is such a different scenario) but instead the numbers are falling steadily. We are down to 325 or so when this hand plays out.
I don’t completely shut-down from here but my focus is now single-mindedly on making the bubble. I was happy with a couple of decisions I made.
Here is one more key hand where I might have conspired to fail at the last hurdle. It is a couple of orbits after the 10s. We are playing 800/1600/200 so there is 4,400 in the pot before betting.
Folded to mega-stack James Keys in the cut-off. Behind him the button is uber-tight (played one hand in 80mins), the SB is short on 11k and I am on 25k having lost that pot to James but shoved from the button with AK and AQ once each (I am not so tight that I will not shove AK from late position but I probably would not call with AK).
James bets 4,000. I put him on a wide range in this position. The button folds as expected but the SB shrugs and throws in his 11k stack.
I am in the Big Blind with pocket 9s. Now, I am thinking I am in OK shape vs the SBs range with all the money in the pot. I am definitely ahead of James’ range. If I push then I can hopefully get rid of him and play a pot with 30k in it against the SB heads-up and still be on 14k if I lose.
It seems the right move. Again, if we are in the money I think I must shove here. I look at James – hard to tell where he’s at. If I make this play and win I am back on 44k and in good shape.
I look up at the clock. There are 306 players left.
I pick up the chips from on top of my cards and straighten up my stack.
I prepare to move in. It’s a great spot.
I fold.
James snap calls with Kings. Bullet dodged.
The clock counts down... 303, 302, 299, 298. The TDs go through a slightly comical procedure to count heads to make sure we are indeed at the very bubble. Hand for Hand. I have 16,500 now but it is absolutely apparent that I am 100% to make the money by folding.
Would I folds Aces now ? My right-hand opponent (who survived a shove vs James that was quite similar to mine except he had JJ to James’s 99 instead of 99 vs KK) says he is folding Aces now, and seems to mean it.
Hand for Hand lasts, in fact, just one hand. We have done it !
As expected, after this, the fallers are thick and fast. Our table breaks immediately and at my next table I am waiting for a spot to shove.
Level 13. 1000/2000/300. Chips 15,800. Players left 296 or less.
At my new table, the player on my left has 140k and to his left there is a stack of 90k or so. I am going to have trouble shoving into these guys with no hand.
I fold everything for a period (the scenarios are just no good) until I get pocket deuces in the small blind and it is folded to me. I see the end is nigh. I order a Corona from the waitress and push my last 13,100 into the pot. It’s 10,800 for the Big Stack/Big Blind to call.
He calls with JT. The boards runs all low and suddenly I have 28,900. Maybe, just maybe ?
My Corona arrives just in time for the next hand. A player in UTG+2 (who had just raised with KQ and folded to a shove) makes it 5,000 to go again.
It is folded to me on the button. I look down at AcKh. Reflex takes over and I put it all in. The EP raiser has 40k total and makes the call with black 9s.
Now, if I can win this race I will suddenly have 64k and be back above average ! However, it isn’t to be although QT on the flop and turn give me ten outs on the river.
Obviously it is right to shove with AK here but I regret insta-shoving. By doing this, I announce to the raiser that I have AK and so he can call knowing he is ahead. If I dwell and push then he may think I have an overpair some of the time and perhaps he can fold. Most likely it is the same result whatever I do, but if there even a small edge to dwell-pushing then I should have done so.
244th place, $2,923
Of course I am disappointed about what might have been, but actually this is one case where overall I am actually slightly more delighted at making one of my key objectives than I am upset at not having gone even further.
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