November Nine

Well, Steve Begleiter made it through to the final table ($1.2Million guaranteed - and all to play for !)

He's still third in chips and Betfair have him at 13/2 to take down the title (roughly in correspondence with his chipcount).

James Akenhead obviously is still the one I would like to see take the title for the Brits and with his Gutshot pedigree. He is the short-stack on 6.8Million chips (average = 22MM approx) but one double up would put him in 4th or 5th spot and then anything is possible.

Obviously he will need some good luck, especially at the start, but it could happen.

He's 18-1 or so on Betfair which rates him at a 50% premium to his pure chipcount. Most of the other runners are trading at less than their chip equity with Phil Ivey being the clear exception: he is at a 150% premium !

I have not actually seen any good analysis of how chip stack should translate into % chance of winning. Most articles I have seen start with the assumption that the two are equivalent. We know this is true at the limits but somehow I would naturally tend to think that the curve may be a bit "flatter". i.e. 10% of chips is more than a 10% chance of winning and 80% of chips is less than an 80% lock.

The odds do remind me of the difficulties I had running a book on the BSPT events. These prices always generated a lot of discussion (and a lot of trading) and one key focus was always the "skew" which in this case had to do with how much more likely the skillful/experienced players were to win.

The outcome routinely suggested that the advantage enjoyed by the better players was rather modest. Even allowing for the fact that luck obviously plays a big part in a fast structure, we were still constantly surprised at the levelling effect of the cards on the night.

Ivey at 2.5x his Chip% - this seems probably too much. I don't think many would take issue with him being the best player left in, and the structure still leaves plenty of play. But, is he 2.5x as good as the field ? Doubtful.

Having said that, if he doubles up then he will be 3rd or 4th in chips and with 60bb he may be hard to stop.

I have never been a big fan of this July-November hiatus but this year I certainly will be paying attention come November !