Saturday 31 May 2008

Fables of A ESOP

At the Gutshot in Clerkenwell at the moment, the self-styled ESOP (European Series of Poker)festival is running.

So far they've run a £100 and £200 NLH Freezeout, and a £150 PLO freeseout as well as some satellite events. The main event is today's £500 NLH freezeout (2-day event). Many, many chips and a long clock are going to make for a tough test.

I'm playing, and looking forward to it greatly. I really hope to make day2 - I have booked a hotel for tonight - I hope this is seen by the poker gods as good karma rather than over-optimism.

I believe the field of players is likely to be very strong so I will need my A+ game to stand a chance. I am also a bit concerned that because I am so keen to go the distance, it might cramp my aggressive style resulting in a worst-of-both-worlds outcome. We'll see.

On the topic, though, I must mention that my former colleagues Valer and Oli played in the £200 NLH on Thursday and noth did very well. Oli bubbled in the end, I think, but Valer came back from < 1 Big Blind to hold the chip lead at the early stages of the final table.

He did not manage to make the very most of this, but did come 5th for £1,400. Very impressive, and he's on quite a roll at the moment (he won the last of the Bear tournaments, readers may recall).

Of course there can be no more Bear poker tournaments as the firm ceased to exist on Friday.

I will let you know how the ESOP goes ....

Tuesday 13 May 2008

Near and Far

After my relatively successful foray into pokerstars tournaments on Sunday night, I decided to dabble again on Monday night. I might not have done that but I was already playing in the gutshot forum league, so I looked for something around the same time.

There was an $8 freezeout which I was knocked out of early on, and an $11 rebuy. I entered that as well and played very few hands but I made some progress with just my big hands and then on the last hand of the rebuy period, I nearly didn't make it (and may not have rebought). I had Aces and decided I would play them a little slower than usual to see if I could really add to my stack (a risky approach).

So I raised to only 3BB and got three callers ! Flop KhJh2c. Could be worse - I thought I might get action from a flush draw or KQ or JT etc. Checked to me, I bet 2/3rd of the pot, and before you know it all the chips are in with 2 other all-ins.

One has KJ and the other had a set of 2s. Oops. However, a beautiful Ace on the river saw me almost triple up and gave me a great start to the freezeout.

Despite being in the top10% I still added on for another $10 and so began a long journey in this tournament. It had a 15minute clock which is pretty slow for an internet event.

I had one really lucky escape with JJ. A terrible player on my right put in a huge overbet and I thought I was way ahead of his range and decided to call all-in. This was at a stage where I had about average chips but it was getting late and I thought I'd be happy to gamble for the benefit of having a potentially big stack in one easy move.

He showed Aces ! I caught a Jack on the turn to survive and really move up the standings.

There were other big hands and it saw me go pretty deep in the event - rising to 5th at one point. However, I think I maybe lacked discipline towards the end - it was much less of a "turbo" than the Sunday Hundred Grand and I could have probably been more patient with my stack.

I finished 55th/1,677 which is clearly a good finish percentile-wise but the $97 pay-day was a far reach from the big money on offer at the final table.

I suppose on balance, I am happy to have three money finishes from three starts and less concerned about my failure to convert to a really good placing. But, ultimately, the objective is to win or at least be in the top3. Certainly to reach the final table.

I know what my next objective should be ....

Monday 12 May 2008

Hundreds and Thousands

I have not played live at all this past week (which I think is the first time that has happened for a while). But I have played a lot online.

I had decided that I ought to be able to beat the low limit cash games so I was giving that a go. I thought I should be able to win a little, or at least lose rather slowly in the meantime before I spend some more time to enhance my skills with study. I would learn as I went along.

Well, I got off to a good start initially, up a few hundred. Then I blew all my gains and my initial stake pretty quickly by means of the classic combination of playing aggressively, taking a bad beat, then going on tilt.

My attempts to recoup my losses foundered as I chased my losses. I hardly dared look at my tracking stats because I knew I had been playing very badly. However, I did, and looking at the data and some exchange of views on the gutshot forum enabled me to clarify some thinking.

Since then I am playing better and more soundly - showing good gains in the later part of the week. What is interesting is that even with major flaws still in my game, I can win.

Of course, these recent wins might be just statistical variance.

In any case, this particular post is really about tournaments. I have played the 10pm $20 rebuy on gutshot.com a few times - the field there is really bad so it's a very good +EV tournament I think. No result however, so far.

Additionally, I have continued to dabble in the pokerstars Steps.

Lastly, I continue to try to qualify for the Sunday Million. Yesterday I extended my 100% failure record in satellites.

However, I decided that my near-term cash form was good enough to justify buying in direct ($215) and I also bought into the Sunday Hundred Grand which - as the name suggests - is a tourney with a guaranteed $100k prize pool.

The Hundred Grand (there is a daily version as well) attracts over 20,000 players so statistically it is a huge obstacle to get into the money let alone into the heavy-paying places. On the flip-side, some of the play is simply appalling which is partly a reflection of the rather modest $11 entry fee.

The Sunday Million attracts a slightly smaller, but still enormous, field (usually around 7,000 players). With the entry at least $215 (more some weeks) you would expect a higher quality of player. Many excellent players are competing (and indeed it is almost a compulsory event for all the internet pros), but the fact is that there are also hundreds of really terrible players in this tournament as well.

Well, good news !

Firstly, one of those horrendous players was sitting on my immediate left in the Million. Over the first 90mins he pretty much gave me all his chips. Terrible calls pre-flop and on the flop, turn and river. Pointless bets, and a total inability to read the situation were some of his failings. Seemed a nice fellow though and his 10,000 chips gave me a solid base.

Secondly, I was going well in the Hundred Grand. I was playing very tight in both events, but in the HG, I was much more willing to jam all my chips in with a good hand - the blinds start to go up rather quickly and although they pay 3,375 places, the first 1,000+ paying spots yield less than $10 profit !!

To cut a long story short (this seems a long post already):

- in the Million, I hung on to pass the bubble for the first time ever. 1,080 of the 6,856 runners were paid and once I had got into the money (I simply folded everything once we were within 100 places of the money) I had only 5BB and pushed it in as soon as I had a playable hand (A9-suited - called by 77. An even race, which I lost but I hardly cared !)

- in the Hundred Grand, a combination of tight play and pushing my good hands (which generally held) saw me into the top20 at one stage. I played pretty well (if I say so myself) but I did make a big error in the end which saw me exit ultimately 65th of 20,257.

This paid a not-to-be-sniffed-at $222.83 although having got so far I should have done better. The prize curve is really steep with nearly $20k to the winner. I should have given myself more of a chance.

But, to be fair, 65th and 1,032nd for two cash finishes is easily my best in these huge-field events and I was really pleased, notwithstanding the mistake in the HG.

Wednesday 7 May 2008

What goes up

I finally fell off the ladder. On Step2 (on the way down from 4 and 5) I finished 7th and out. It was a meek ending.

The final sequence was 1-2-1-2-3-3-4-3-3-4-5-5-4-2-out.

One remarkable thing is how much Pokerstars raked out of this run. On the one hand, of course, I only put in $7.50 so I cannot have lost any more than that (and of the $7.50, supposedly only $0.50 was rake to begin with).

However, each step of the ladder is raked and you can buy directly into each step, so the rake is real even if I did not personally contribute it.

The rake-ladder would look like this:

$0.50 - $2 - $0.5 - $2 - $7 - $7 - $15 - $7 - $7 - $15 - $30 - $30 - $15 - $2

So I contributed $140 in rake during this ultimately unsuccessful attempt.

Now I am out, I am really ruing my misfortune at not making it thru Step5 when I was in the chip lead. I do not think there is anything I could have done differently, so no regrets, but still the question "what if ?".

Tuesday 6 May 2008

Out of Step

Nearly anyway.

After falling back from 5 to 4, I played my step 4 and really struggled - nothing went for me. I eventually limped into the last 6 (so retaining at least a foot on the ladder).

Then picked up pocket Queens on the SB. Button pushed with K6 - and caught a King on the river. So the only morsel of good news was that I get a spot back on Step 2 so it is not quite over yet.

The Joy of Steps

I have been musing on what kind of poker to play in the next few months. Online, there are three main strands:

- cash games
- MTTs
- SnGs

Those seeking to earn a steady income from poker generally work with SnGs or cash. It is widely recognised that SnGs can be approached very analytically and in this way the variance can be reduced and the edge from correct strategy (usually combined with software assistance) can be maximised.

Likewise, cash games at the right stakes can be multi-tabled and augmented with tracking tools to produce good returns.

Obviously MTTs offer the potential for large leverage but inevitably must come with long stretches of nil returns.

Mind you, is not clear that I want to align my approach with the standard professional. I am not necessarily in the business of trying to make money playing poker online. However, I do want to play and make money !

That's a bit of a contradiction. I suppose the point is that I am not driven in my choices entirely by the "best" return.

In the meantime whilst I try to decide what is the best plan, I have been playing the Pokerstars "Steps" qualifiers for the WSOP. Very interesting structure.

All the games are 9-person SnGs. There are 6 levels (steps) of buy-ins - the top level is $2,100 to buy in and offers the winner a $12,500 package to the WSOP. At the other end is the first step - $7.50.

The winner at each step moves up to the next step so the idea/dream is that you can buy in for $7.50 and win the $12,500 prize.

What is particularly interesting is the prize structure: at Step 1, 2 of 9 progress, and 3rd place gets to try again. At the later steps, the prizes are even more broadly spread. Generally the top 2 go up, the next two try again and the 5th and 6th get to try at a lower step.

I bought in to step 1 and am now at step 5 (2nd attempt). So far I have not had to buy in again and have travelled S1-S2-S1-S2-S3-S3-S4-S3-S3-S4-S4-S5-S5.

Step 5 is a $700 buy-in so in some sense I have multiplied my buy-in by 100x but it can't be cashed out and at any time I may be back at the ground level.

The tactic I am employing is a fairly obvious one: very tight early on, to try to ensure I am at least guaranteed a retry at a lower level. Of course, everyone else is doing the same and sometimes you just have to get all your chips in early on if the situation arises.

The Step where I went from S4 to S5 was an epic game - I think we were 3-handed for about 20minutes. Then at Step5, I was the chip-leader when I held AK vs TT and missed. Then, 5-handed I was still a slight leader when the short-stack pushed all-in. Holding AQ it was automatic to over-push.

Unfortunately, 2nd-in-chips behind me chose this moment to wake up with Aces. The good news was that the short-stakc was eliminated promoting me to 4th. I had a few chips left, but lost those vs another pair of Aces shortly thereafter.

Ah well. Next ....

Sunday 4 May 2008

Poker nicknames

All the top players have one.

Some are better than others. Some are obvious in their provenance; others are a little mysterious. One thing they have in common, though, is that rarely were they chosen by the player. Nicknames are bestowed upon the player by others.

For a long time, I had to do without a nickname. The nearest thing to it was my online identity - pokersmith2

Then, suddenly, it happened. I was playing in the forum league (I think the first or the second game). I was using my trademark aggressive style, getting lucky and running over the game.

As another perfect card arrived and I knocked someone else out, one of the other players coined the phrase "H-bomb" in the chatbox and it has stuck ever since.

I believe another property of poker nicknames is that they are rarely changed. So, I have my poker-name for life. I'm pretty happy with it !

H-bomb stands for loose, aggressive and lucky. Those traits were in evidence on day3 of my Vegas trip when I finally made it down to MGM.

I had started the day with modest winning sessions at Mirage and Caesar's. It was getting pretty late in the day but I thought I'd better stick to my plan.

I arrived at MGM around 3:30am. There was no $2/5 game but there were 4 or 5 tables at $1/2 so I bought in for $200 (the max).

Almost immediately things began to go right. On the button with 9h7h I limped, then called a raise to $15 by the SB who I put on a big hand.

The flop was 99T - bingo ! I called a bet on the flop, then on the turn, I raised the next bet. "You can't have a 9 in your hand" declared the other player and re-raised all-in. Insta-call by me - I'm facing pocket Kings and double up to around $900.

After this, the table livened up considerably with frequent use of the $4 straddle. In one such hand, I made a raise from mid-position to $15, called by the BB and the straddler.

The flop came down Q87 with 2 clubs. Checked to me, I bet $30. The BB raised to $100 and I moved all in (confident I have the best hand). I was called by A7-clubs and avoided the flush to move onto about $900.

Next up .. AdQd. I bumped an initial raiser to $30. Four players saw the flop JdTd9s !! No made hand for me but a monster draw. I bet $100 and was raised all-in for another $280. Easy call. The unfortunate player has KQo for the current nuts but he was soon behind when a King turned me the higher straight.

Up to $1,400 and in danger of killing the action !

I followed this up with pocket 4s which flopped Quads, and 56 making the nut straight but I couldn't make much progress beyond the $1,500 mark and called it a night around 5:30 -- in need of some sleep !

Thursday 1 May 2008

Delayed Reaction

As far as I can tell on very brief investigation, this story may actually be true:

http://www.pokernews.com/news/2008/04/wsop-final-table-delayed-november.htm

It's ridiculous in my opinion, and may yet turn out to be a false rumour.

False Start

Down at the Gutshot on Wednesday evening. Turned out to be quite a small field for the £75 tournament (significantly affected by the Champions League).

35 runners. I had a pretty uneventful game - hovering a little below average for most of the tournament. With blinds 400/800 and chips at 5,100 (starting stack 5,000) it was folded to me on the button. With pocket 5s it was a pretty obvious push, and a pretty obvious call by the SB with AK-suited (in fact, he pushed all-in as well to isolate. Again, obvious).

An Ace came on the flop, obviously. Out in 16th.

The cash games were also very quiet indeed and very tight - not my sort of game at all. Especially after I lost a massive pot in the first orbit. My KK on the button vs. AA from the UTG player. It was a raised and re-raised pot pre-flop but after my raise, the UTG player just called and I must say that even then I thought AA was a distinct possibility. The rest of the money went in on the low flop. I'm not sure if I'm supposed to be able to get away from it there.

I lost the rest of my initial buy-in with AhTh on the Jh9h6s board. Pre-flop raiser checked, I checked, there was a bet of £15, a raise to £50 and I re-raised all in to about £200. Called by KK. Lost that race - it's almost 50/50 (53/47 against me in fact).

Down £500 at that point - in very early running. Was almost exactly level after that, but the game didn't offer many opportunities to gain much back. I waited as long as I could for some action to arrive, but no joy. With hindsight I would have called it a day much earlier. If I'm going to lose I'd much prefer a livelier game to lose it in.

I did stay 100% clear of the Omaha. That was one correct decision, I'm sure.