I always say that tournaments are the very definition of frustration. My record in online MTTs isn't too bad, but right now I just can't seem to nail one really big result.
Yesterday was a typical example. I entered 3 low/medium level tournaments. In one my KK was busted by QJo at the midway stage. In another, I unwisely called with AQs when the Big blind pushed on my raise. He showed KK.
In the 3rd - $11 on pokerstars - I avoided any death by outdraw for a long time, and I myself won a couple of 60/40s and 40/60s so that I cruised into the money places. I continued to play very solidly, and was in the top10 at one point.
However, I once again was not able to convert 5 hours of play into a really good finish.
2,241 played. 324 places paid. I eventually finished 40th (for $40). 300% ROI, of course, but less than minimum wage as a financial return ! 1st place was over $3k . I finished in the top 2% of players (and far, far into the money places). But all the reward is at the sharp end.
I played very tight so I rarely was in bad shape when the money went in. In the final hand, I was of course pushing the envelope a bit. I was down to about 14BB and pushed Ks7s from the button. I thought I was rather unlucky to find A8 and AK behind me - both called.
I actually wasn't in terrible shape - about 1 in 4 to scoop a huge pot. I was better off after the flop brought an Ace, but also two spades. If another spade had arrived then I would have been top 10 again, but it wasn't to be.
The conventional wisdom is that if you keep plugging away playing a solid tournament style, then the big break will come along. By definition, almost everyone in the tourney has to fail to make the big money places but it still is a potential fist-through-screen moment each time the mission fails !
Tuesday 31 March 2009
Monday 23 March 2009
Percentage Game
My stats for the year received an absolute battering during March. My live results - which had been positive in both cash and tournaments - dived into the red as a result of a complete blank in the tournaments at the London Poker Masters and a number of bad sessions at the associated cash games.
As far as the tournaments are concerned, that is not so surprising . Statistically one cannot expect to cash in any particular tournament in any case, and in this case the fields were pretty strong also. I thought karma might be going my way when I knocked a strong player out on my first hand in the HORSE tournament and then picked up Aces on the button in the first NLH tournament, but it didn't turn out like that!
Cash-wise, I expected to do better. On the plus side, I chalked up some really good experience playing in a very aggressive PLO game. I think it improved my game, and I can maybe reap the benefit another time !
One might have thought that with all the experience I have accumulated over the past 3 - 4 years, I ought to be able to be in the winning column.
The fact that I am not can be explained in a number of plausible ways, none of which can be proven. The simplest and probably most reasonable explanation is that, although I almost certainly am a better player than I was, I have also tended to play at higher stakes and harder games as I improved. Playing more has exacerbated the "problem".
When I was in Vegas in April 2008 with a very focused aim of beating the low-stakes cash games I found that, indeed, they were beatable and I did beat them. This was not any great achievement except insofar as setting a target and meeting it is a success.
When I went the next time, I went back up the stakes and lost. Although, to be sure, losing then had more to do with combining drinking and playing and not combining much sleep with either.
Winning money from playing is certainly not the primary reason I play. In that sense, it's not too problematic that I am still losing. On the other hand, I am not a big fan of constantly losing, especially as my confidence can take a knock from persistent failure to win.
It takes me a little while to recover mentally from a series of losses. However, till now, I have never failed to regain the urge to play. And, historically, there have always been wins around the next corner that restore my belief that I can win.
Overall, for me, it's a fairly simple equation. I play because I love playing.
What does seem clear is that my best results are in online MTTs. One target I had for this year was to improve my results in MTTs on one particular objective measure.
onlinepokerrankings.com (OPR) ranks all players of MTTs on a few of the big sites and assigns a %ile rating. I don't know their exact algorithm but it's certainly based on consistently doing well over a long run of tournaments.
50% is - de facto - the average rating but certainly average players are losing players. In fact, I think the break-even ranking is around 90%.
In 2007 and 2008 my rating for the full year was only just over 50%. Even though I do not consider myself to be an especially strong player, this is clearly awful. I did feel that it didn't reflect what I could have achieved.
This year, I have played with a bit more focus in the MTTs although, still, I often fall foul of impatience and reckless play.
This has shown up in my pokerstars ranking. At about 95 - 96% it's much improved. At that level I am (just) winning as on online MTT player. When I look at the other players at my table, I do not consider them to be especially good players unless they consistently are at the 99%+ level, so I still have a long way to go. However, I'm pleased with the improvement. Clearly it has to be a target for me to keep that up over the whole of 2009.
I've actually NEVER won a large MTT on pokerstars. My best results are probably 47th out of 26,364 in the $200K Guarantee back in Feb09 or 65th in a similar field back in May08. I have not - in fact - ever made the final table in one of these large field events. I was 11th out of 1,275 runners in a $9 MTT in January - and that's it !
I have cashed just twice in the Sunday Million - 383rd out of 7,133 being the best.
My record on gutshot.com is a bit better I think although OPR don't track that so I would have to refer to my own records - which I don't have in enough detail. But I do know that I have final tabled several times in those MTTs.
This is partly due to the softer play and also a result of the smaller fields (this is the main reason, one suspects).
MTTs on gutshot are tracked by Sharkscope and I was amazed the other day to find that my results so far had marked me as a "shark". The next day when I looked again, I had fallen below the "shark" threshold. However, my stats don't look too bad there (23% ROI) although the sample size is modest - about 100 tournaments.
I'll be aiming to regain my shark status - a couple of solid cashes should do the trick. Despite my multiple appearances at the final tables, I am still looking for my first outright win - that also needs to go on the "to do" list.
As far as the tournaments are concerned, that is not so surprising . Statistically one cannot expect to cash in any particular tournament in any case, and in this case the fields were pretty strong also. I thought karma might be going my way when I knocked a strong player out on my first hand in the HORSE tournament and then picked up Aces on the button in the first NLH tournament, but it didn't turn out like that!
Cash-wise, I expected to do better. On the plus side, I chalked up some really good experience playing in a very aggressive PLO game. I think it improved my game, and I can maybe reap the benefit another time !
One might have thought that with all the experience I have accumulated over the past 3 - 4 years, I ought to be able to be in the winning column.
The fact that I am not can be explained in a number of plausible ways, none of which can be proven. The simplest and probably most reasonable explanation is that, although I almost certainly am a better player than I was, I have also tended to play at higher stakes and harder games as I improved. Playing more has exacerbated the "problem".
When I was in Vegas in April 2008 with a very focused aim of beating the low-stakes cash games I found that, indeed, they were beatable and I did beat them. This was not any great achievement except insofar as setting a target and meeting it is a success.
When I went the next time, I went back up the stakes and lost. Although, to be sure, losing then had more to do with combining drinking and playing and not combining much sleep with either.
Winning money from playing is certainly not the primary reason I play. In that sense, it's not too problematic that I am still losing. On the other hand, I am not a big fan of constantly losing, especially as my confidence can take a knock from persistent failure to win.
It takes me a little while to recover mentally from a series of losses. However, till now, I have never failed to regain the urge to play. And, historically, there have always been wins around the next corner that restore my belief that I can win.
Overall, for me, it's a fairly simple equation. I play because I love playing.
What does seem clear is that my best results are in online MTTs. One target I had for this year was to improve my results in MTTs on one particular objective measure.
onlinepokerrankings.com (OPR) ranks all players of MTTs on a few of the big sites and assigns a %ile rating. I don't know their exact algorithm but it's certainly based on consistently doing well over a long run of tournaments.
50% is - de facto - the average rating but certainly average players are losing players. In fact, I think the break-even ranking is around 90%.
In 2007 and 2008 my rating for the full year was only just over 50%. Even though I do not consider myself to be an especially strong player, this is clearly awful. I did feel that it didn't reflect what I could have achieved.
This year, I have played with a bit more focus in the MTTs although, still, I often fall foul of impatience and reckless play.
This has shown up in my pokerstars ranking. At about 95 - 96% it's much improved. At that level I am (just) winning as on online MTT player. When I look at the other players at my table, I do not consider them to be especially good players unless they consistently are at the 99%+ level, so I still have a long way to go. However, I'm pleased with the improvement. Clearly it has to be a target for me to keep that up over the whole of 2009.
I've actually NEVER won a large MTT on pokerstars. My best results are probably 47th out of 26,364 in the $200K Guarantee back in Feb09 or 65th in a similar field back in May08. I have not - in fact - ever made the final table in one of these large field events. I was 11th out of 1,275 runners in a $9 MTT in January - and that's it !
I have cashed just twice in the Sunday Million - 383rd out of 7,133 being the best.
My record on gutshot.com is a bit better I think although OPR don't track that so I would have to refer to my own records - which I don't have in enough detail. But I do know that I have final tabled several times in those MTTs.
This is partly due to the softer play and also a result of the smaller fields (this is the main reason, one suspects).
MTTs on gutshot are tracked by Sharkscope and I was amazed the other day to find that my results so far had marked me as a "shark". The next day when I looked again, I had fallen below the "shark" threshold. However, my stats don't look too bad there (23% ROI) although the sample size is modest - about 100 tournaments.
I'll be aiming to regain my shark status - a couple of solid cashes should do the trick. Despite my multiple appearances at the final tables, I am still looking for my first outright win - that also needs to go on the "to do" list.
Wednesday 4 March 2009
Boom to Doom
Playing the HORSE last night, I obviously knew it was just a matter of time before I would be hitting the cash games. It happened a bit earlier than I had wanted - my initial "Boom" in knocking out a player on hand 1 was extinguished in little more than an hour.
All I needed though was to drop a couple of bombs at the PLO and all would be well.
Alas, it was the very opposite. All told before I had to retire hurt, I think I might have won 5 pots. It was a one-way trip to the bottom.
Early doors, I've lost chips with a straight on a board that flushes then pairs and I am beaten by Jazz's set which fills up on the river.
I soon get my chips in with a small set on a 9-5-2 flop; I have bet the flop last to act, getting 2 calls before a short-stack c/r all in. I move in over the top and get 2 callers there as well ! I suspect I was losing the main pot, but it would have been nice to hold up in the large side pot. Instead, H-train catches a running straight to scoop.
My next buy in is gone in a flash and then on my 3rd attempt, I have AAKT on the straddle. I raise and get 5 callers. The flop comes AT9r. I check raise all in with 2 callers. I am up against a set of 9s (Dan) and JAzzs J8 oesd. Instant service with the Queen on 4th street.
Go again ... T986dd. There's about £50 in pre-flop. the QJ9dd flop is checked around. When Barry bets £50 on the blank 5c turn, Mike Tse calls and I jam it. Barry lets top2pr with diamonds go ! Mike continues with Q5 and diamonds. How many diamonds are left !! Not many, but enough for Mike to catch one straight away. Aaargghh.
I get it all in again with QQT8cc and make the nut flush - losing to Aces full.
I simply cannot win a pot from in front or behind. Next time I get Aces in the straddle I am able to make it £68 pre flop with Mike Tse and Karl M calling. KJ4 flop gives me a backdoor NFD and the gutshot. I push, Karl calls with his K943 rainbow. He fills up on the turn.
I do finally win a pot with Aces -- I have limped for £2 and no one raises ! I check the Ace high flop hoping SOMEONE can bet the flop which also has flush and straight draw. Nope. No one bets the 3rd diamond on the turn either ( I have the Ace). The river gives me Quads and I pick up a £10 stab from Karl.
I'm not sure I even remember where the rest of my chips went - I do know that in my final hand I flop 2pair and a gutshot. The turn brings my nut straight but a flush as well. I'm stubborn by this point and pay off Mike Khan who does, of course, have a medium flush.
It was easily my worst cash session of the year and not a great way to begin the festival week. Apart from the bankroll hit, my biggest concern is the dent to my confidence. It is a certain fact that one cannot win without a positive attitude. That's not sufficient, to be sure, but it is a necessary starting point.
Here's hoping to have better news to report next time.
All I needed though was to drop a couple of bombs at the PLO and all would be well.
Alas, it was the very opposite. All told before I had to retire hurt, I think I might have won 5 pots. It was a one-way trip to the bottom.
Early doors, I've lost chips with a straight on a board that flushes then pairs and I am beaten by Jazz's set which fills up on the river.
I soon get my chips in with a small set on a 9-5-2 flop; I have bet the flop last to act, getting 2 calls before a short-stack c/r all in. I move in over the top and get 2 callers there as well ! I suspect I was losing the main pot, but it would have been nice to hold up in the large side pot. Instead, H-train catches a running straight to scoop.
My next buy in is gone in a flash and then on my 3rd attempt, I have AAKT on the straddle. I raise and get 5 callers. The flop comes AT9r. I check raise all in with 2 callers. I am up against a set of 9s (Dan) and JAzzs J8 oesd. Instant service with the Queen on 4th street.
Go again ... T986dd. There's about £50 in pre-flop. the QJ9dd flop is checked around. When Barry bets £50 on the blank 5c turn, Mike Tse calls and I jam it. Barry lets top2pr with diamonds go ! Mike continues with Q5 and diamonds. How many diamonds are left !! Not many, but enough for Mike to catch one straight away. Aaargghh.
I get it all in again with QQT8cc and make the nut flush - losing to Aces full.
I simply cannot win a pot from in front or behind. Next time I get Aces in the straddle I am able to make it £68 pre flop with Mike Tse and Karl M calling. KJ4 flop gives me a backdoor NFD and the gutshot. I push, Karl calls with his K943 rainbow. He fills up on the turn.
I do finally win a pot with Aces -- I have limped for £2 and no one raises ! I check the Ace high flop hoping SOMEONE can bet the flop which also has flush and straight draw. Nope. No one bets the 3rd diamond on the turn either ( I have the Ace). The river gives me Quads and I pick up a £10 stab from Karl.
I'm not sure I even remember where the rest of my chips went - I do know that in my final hand I flop 2pair and a gutshot. The turn brings my nut straight but a flush as well. I'm stubborn by this point and pay off Mike Khan who does, of course, have a medium flush.
It was easily my worst cash session of the year and not a great way to begin the festival week. Apart from the bankroll hit, my biggest concern is the dent to my confidence. It is a certain fact that one cannot win without a positive attitude. That's not sufficient, to be sure, but it is a necessary starting point.
Here's hoping to have better news to report next time.
HORSEplay
I notice I have been amiss in updating the blog recently - I'll try to do some catchup posts!
In the meantime, the current blogworthy news must concern the London Poker Masters - a festival that is going on this week at The International Club in London.
I decided to stay down in London for a few nights, and play a range of events. I cannot play the 2-day main event, but instead I am playing all the run-in tournaments.
The first of these was a £200 HORSE last night. When the club originally mooted such a competition, there was real doubt that it could be staged. Who would play it ? I said I'd play it for one - just to give it a bit of support. I was surprised when they put it on the calendar, but when a £50 warmup event attracted 58 runners, it was clear that it was a real winner !
It turned out that I was only able to make the event by registering in advance and turning up about 2 hours late. Normally, such late-entry conditions are the preserve of certain laid-back pros in 5day events. But, in fact, with a deep-stack limit event the consensus was that I would not be seriously disadvantaged. As a bonus, I was guaranteed not to make a too-early exit.
I have literally never played any of the games in HORSE. "H" is for Hold'em, which obviously I am familiar with, but it's limit poker and - let's be honest - this is a different game. "O" is for Omaha (sort of) but as well as being a limit game, it is Omaha Hi-Lo which, in fact, is a very different proposition to the PLO that I know and "love".
"R" is for Razz, "S" is for 7card Stud and "E" is for "Eight or better" which is 7card stud, Hi-Lo.
I did some homework by dabbling in the HORSE cash games on pokerstars in the last couple of weeks. This hardly prepared me for a tournament situation, but I did at least learn the mechanics and brushed up on the lingo.
So, although I knew I was dead money in the event, I was looking forward to it. I wasn't quite sure how to explode an H-Bomb in limit poker but it turned it to be possible.
I arrived slightly ahead of my estimate at 8:45 - 105minutes after the start and in level 4. We were playing Hold'em in my first hand. I had 6,450 chips left from a starting stack of 8,000. This was slightly less than I had expected due to the structure being changed a little in light of the marathon in the £50 warmup.
"Tight is Right" I had chanted to myself on the journey in. I really wanted to put that into practice. However, when it was folded to me in the cutoff, I surely have to raise with Q9-suited ? I make it 600 and the Big Blind makes it 900. I look up - the BB is none other than Hit-Squad pro Karl Mahrenholz. Uh-oh.
I can hardly fold, but it doesn't look great; Karl is short stacked as well, so my implied odds are not great.
I prepare myself to start on a downer. But, wait ! The flop comes QQ3 !!
Karl bets. I know now that it's going to be a good situation. Of course I just flat call. The turn brings another 3. Karl bets, I raise now and he's all in. I announce "Queen" and before I can even turn up my cards he's mucked his cardss and got up out of his seat.
Karl is only the 2nd elimination from the 48runner field. My HORSE career is off to a to major start.
My table is full of "faces". 2 to my left is another famous "H" - Simon Hennessey - widely and rightly credited for making HORSE a success at The International. On my immediate left, limit-game pro/specialist Jon Shoreman.
The table also features Gutshot/International stalwarts Timmy Mann, Cameron Angus and Pedro.
After my initial boom, surely I must play tight now but next hand I get AK! What can I do but raise Timmy who has open-limped? I face a re-raise and I cap it vs Jon Shoreman. The flop is 2-3-4. I check-call, not wanting to get too busy out of position to a top expert. We both check the turn (2) and river (4) and it turns out that I was rivered ! Jon has AJ-suited and had picked up two clubs on the flop. This pot was always going to be a chop - he was never going away, although maybe I should have at least tried to take it down.
I end up seeing the river in 2 Omaha/8 hands. In both cases I have the nut low by the river (runner/runner !) but in both cases I am losing to a monster for the high. So, split pots.
I have 8,875 at the end of the level - got to be happy with that !
I think I am playing tight but it's amazing how the chips disappear. I play AA98 from the big blind in O/8 and lost to T862. Pedro called my raise pre (??) but when he made 2pair on the flop he was massive I guess, but I don't see how I can get away when he only had 2 big bets left.
I then lost half of my remaining chips in Razz. Starting with (85)3 to Timmy's (56)3, I picked up an Ace on 4th while he caught a 4. He paired his 4 on 5th street whilst I made a 5card low with a Ten. Thing is, I should have realised I could not take him off the pot. Having said that, if I catch well on 6th instead of him, it would have been a different outcome.
When he received a 7 and I showed a Jack, I had to give up. Timmy showed his hole cards and claimed that he thought he was semi-bluffing. He said that he wasn't aware that 76543 was a valid low - as, indeed, it is NOT in lowball which he is maybe more familiar with. Thing is, I am genuinely not sure whether he thought this or was just having a laugh at my expense.
Either way I only had 2,100 chips left now and it wasn't too long before I was all in in StudHi. In a rather strange hand, Simon Hennessy had only 1,900 himself and raised showing a 4up. I had a 5-up and 2 other 5s were showing !
Anyway I decided I was happy to gamble with Simon with my KJ in the hole - I know he is gambling as well. Strangely Pedro with a 5 showing as well comes along and Simon and I are both all in on the first betting round.
Simon has (Q6)4; I have the (KJ)5 and Pedro has (A5)5. A it turns out, Simon overtakes me but Pedro stays in the lead eventually making 7s up and eliminating Simon and I.
In the end, Timmy, Cameron and Jon Shoreman from this table all make the final table with Jon's quality eventually seeing him take home the inaugral HORSE trophy.
Coverage and pictures here: http://www.gutshot.com/bforum/showthread.php?t=31190
In the meantime, the current blogworthy news must concern the London Poker Masters - a festival that is going on this week at The International Club in London.
I decided to stay down in London for a few nights, and play a range of events. I cannot play the 2-day main event, but instead I am playing all the run-in tournaments.
The first of these was a £200 HORSE last night. When the club originally mooted such a competition, there was real doubt that it could be staged. Who would play it ? I said I'd play it for one - just to give it a bit of support. I was surprised when they put it on the calendar, but when a £50 warmup event attracted 58 runners, it was clear that it was a real winner !
It turned out that I was only able to make the event by registering in advance and turning up about 2 hours late. Normally, such late-entry conditions are the preserve of certain laid-back pros in 5day events. But, in fact, with a deep-stack limit event the consensus was that I would not be seriously disadvantaged. As a bonus, I was guaranteed not to make a too-early exit.
I have literally never played any of the games in HORSE. "H" is for Hold'em, which obviously I am familiar with, but it's limit poker and - let's be honest - this is a different game. "O" is for Omaha (sort of) but as well as being a limit game, it is Omaha Hi-Lo which, in fact, is a very different proposition to the PLO that I know and "love".
"R" is for Razz, "S" is for 7card Stud and "E" is for "Eight or better" which is 7card stud, Hi-Lo.
I did some homework by dabbling in the HORSE cash games on pokerstars in the last couple of weeks. This hardly prepared me for a tournament situation, but I did at least learn the mechanics and brushed up on the lingo.
So, although I knew I was dead money in the event, I was looking forward to it. I wasn't quite sure how to explode an H-Bomb in limit poker but it turned it to be possible.
I arrived slightly ahead of my estimate at 8:45 - 105minutes after the start and in level 4. We were playing Hold'em in my first hand. I had 6,450 chips left from a starting stack of 8,000. This was slightly less than I had expected due to the structure being changed a little in light of the marathon in the £50 warmup.
"Tight is Right" I had chanted to myself on the journey in. I really wanted to put that into practice. However, when it was folded to me in the cutoff, I surely have to raise with Q9-suited ? I make it 600 and the Big Blind makes it 900. I look up - the BB is none other than Hit-Squad pro Karl Mahrenholz. Uh-oh.
I can hardly fold, but it doesn't look great; Karl is short stacked as well, so my implied odds are not great.
I prepare myself to start on a downer. But, wait ! The flop comes QQ3 !!
Karl bets. I know now that it's going to be a good situation. Of course I just flat call. The turn brings another 3. Karl bets, I raise now and he's all in. I announce "Queen" and before I can even turn up my cards he's mucked his cardss and got up out of his seat.
Karl is only the 2nd elimination from the 48runner field. My HORSE career is off to a to major start.
My table is full of "faces". 2 to my left is another famous "H" - Simon Hennessey - widely and rightly credited for making HORSE a success at The International. On my immediate left, limit-game pro/specialist Jon Shoreman.
The table also features Gutshot/International stalwarts Timmy Mann, Cameron Angus and Pedro.
After my initial boom, surely I must play tight now but next hand I get AK! What can I do but raise Timmy who has open-limped? I face a re-raise and I cap it vs Jon Shoreman. The flop is 2-3-4. I check-call, not wanting to get too busy out of position to a top expert. We both check the turn (2) and river (4) and it turns out that I was rivered ! Jon has AJ-suited and had picked up two clubs on the flop. This pot was always going to be a chop - he was never going away, although maybe I should have at least tried to take it down.
I end up seeing the river in 2 Omaha/8 hands. In both cases I have the nut low by the river (runner/runner !) but in both cases I am losing to a monster for the high. So, split pots.
I have 8,875 at the end of the level - got to be happy with that !
I think I am playing tight but it's amazing how the chips disappear. I play AA98 from the big blind in O/8 and lost to T862. Pedro called my raise pre (??) but when he made 2pair on the flop he was massive I guess, but I don't see how I can get away when he only had 2 big bets left.
I then lost half of my remaining chips in Razz. Starting with (85)3 to Timmy's (56)3, I picked up an Ace on 4th while he caught a 4. He paired his 4 on 5th street whilst I made a 5card low with a Ten. Thing is, I should have realised I could not take him off the pot. Having said that, if I catch well on 6th instead of him, it would have been a different outcome.
When he received a 7 and I showed a Jack, I had to give up. Timmy showed his hole cards and claimed that he thought he was semi-bluffing. He said that he wasn't aware that 76543 was a valid low - as, indeed, it is NOT in lowball which he is maybe more familiar with. Thing is, I am genuinely not sure whether he thought this or was just having a laugh at my expense.
Either way I only had 2,100 chips left now and it wasn't too long before I was all in in StudHi. In a rather strange hand, Simon Hennessy had only 1,900 himself and raised showing a 4up. I had a 5-up and 2 other 5s were showing !
Anyway I decided I was happy to gamble with Simon with my KJ in the hole - I know he is gambling as well. Strangely Pedro with a 5 showing as well comes along and Simon and I are both all in on the first betting round.
Simon has (Q6)4; I have the (KJ)5 and Pedro has (A5)5. A it turns out, Simon overtakes me but Pedro stays in the lead eventually making 7s up and eliminating Simon and I.
In the end, Timmy, Cameron and Jon Shoreman from this table all make the final table with Jon's quality eventually seeing him take home the inaugral HORSE trophy.
Coverage and pictures here: http://www.gutshot.com/bforum/showthread.php?t=31190
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